Document Type : Research Article

Authors

1 Department of Actuarial Science and Insurance Planning, ECO College of Insurance, Allameh Tabatabai University, Tehran, Iran

2 Department of Actuarial Science and Insurance Planning, ECO college of Insurance, Tehran, Iran

3 Insurance Research Center, Tehran, Iran

Abstract

Insurance companies regularly estimate loss reserves due to delays in settling claims. These delays depend on the time taken from claim filing to settlement. The study aims to estimate reported loss reserves through cross-sectional regression using cargo insurance market data. The model considers written premiums, paid claims, reinsurance issued premiums, inflation rates, and return on investment. The analysis demonstrates a nonsignificant negative association between inflation rates and loss reserves, as well as a negative correlation between paid claims and loss. While revealing a statistically significant positive relationship between written premiums and loss reserves.

Keywords

[1] G. C. Chow, Economic growth and air quality influences on energy sources depletion, forest sources and health in MENA, Econometrica 28 (3), https://doi.org/10.2307/1910133
(1960), 591-605.
[2] Y. Ibrahim, T. A. E. A. Taha and M. S. Minai , Cross Sectional Estimation of Loss
Reserve for Egyptian Fire Insurance Market, European Journal of Social Sciences, 25 (4),
(2011), 456-464.
[3] T. Mack, Measuring the Variability of Chain Ladder Reserve Estimates, Casualty Actuarial
Society, 1, (1993), 101-182.
[4] P. Narayan, T. Warthen , A comparative study of the performance of loss reserving methods through simulation, (Doctoral dissertation), Journal of Actuarial Practices, 8, (2000),
63-88.
[5] A. A. Soleha, Y. Hikmah , Claim Reserve Estimation Using Double Chain Ladder Method,
International Journal of Industrial Engineering & Production Research , https://doi.org/
10.22068/ijiepr.3333 33(33), (2022), 4-18.
[6] G. Taylor, G. McGuire , Loss reserving with GLMs: a case study, Presented at the
Accident Compensation Seminar, Institute of Actuaries of Australia, November 28-December
1, (2004).
[7] A. Wolny-Dominiak , The hierarchical generalized linear model and the bootstrap estimator
of the error of prediction of loss reserves in a non-life insurance company, (2016).
[8] X. Che, Insurance Market Competition and Reserve Management, Journal of Insurance
Issues, 42 (2), (2019), 1-38.
[9] I. J. Song, W. Heo, Improving insurers loss reserve error prediction: Adopting combined
unsupervised-supervised machine learning techniques in risk management, The Journal of
Finance and Data Science, 8, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfds.2022.09.003, (2022), 233-
254.
[10] I. Badounas, G. Pitselis, Loss Reserving Estimation With Correlated Run-Off Triangles
in a Quantile Longitudinal Model, Risks, 8 (1), 14, https://doi.org/10.3390/risks8010014,
(2020).
[11] G. Taylor, Loss Reserving Models: Granular and Machine Learning Forms. School of Risk
and Actuarial Studies, University of New South Wales, Kensington, NSW 2052, Australia,
(2019).