Document Type : Research Article
Authors
1 University of Tehran, Tehran,Iran
2 Ph.D. candidate in Economics Department, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran
3 Postdoc of Finance, Faculty of Economics, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran
4 Ph.D. student in Financial Engineering, Allameh Tabataba'i University, Tehran, Iran.
5 Master of Science in Financial Management, Alzahra University, Tehran, Iran.
Abstract
In this study, based on the monetary behavior theory, which considers the mean and standard deviation of GDP per capita besides the inflation difference between two countries, we first present a model for determining the fair value of the Russian ruble in the long run from 1999 to 2021 based on macroeconomic indicators including inflation, and GDP per capita. And then we modeled the effect of widespread Russian economic sanctions on the value of the Russian ruble during the turbulent days of February 9 to April 9. Our research results show that there is not much difference between market value and fair value in the long run. Also, by observing the behavior of the ruble during the turbulent days of February 25, 2022, to April 26, 2022, and by entering the conditional risk factor and weighted average of the ruble, the USD to ruble equality between 76.23 and 91.6 was evaluated
Keywords
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