Journal of Mathematics and Modeling in Finance (JMMF)
Atefeh Kanani; Amir T Payandeh; Mohammad Zokaei
Abstract
In this paper, we considered the long-term health insurance as a sequence of annual health insurance policies. To improve the disadvantages of long-term health insurance, we specify the optimal contract including optimal insurance premiums and optimal insurance coverage for the healthcare costs using ...
Read More
In this paper, we considered the long-term health insurance as a sequence of annual health insurance policies. To improve the disadvantages of long-term health insurance, we specify the optimal contract including optimal insurance premiums and optimal insurance coverage for the healthcare costs using a negotiation model. We considered two case of known and unknown initial health state. The predictive model for healthcare costs was determined as a time series and state-contingent models. Since the health state changes over time, the insured tends not only to be insured against risk according to her health state, but also to be insured against reclassification of risk. The insurer also seeks a fair premium appropriate to the insured's risk. To achieve this, we determined the optimal contract based on the negotiation model, in which the negotiation parameter is calculated based on the Nash solution. The optimal premium is independent of health state so that the insured is safe against reclassification. However, the insurer coverage is state-contingent and protects the insurer from detriment. Moreover, due to the uncertainty in estimating the parameters of the prediction model, we specified the projection interval by using the bootstrap method for optimal insurance premiums in the coming years. Thus, the insured is aware of the premium intervals at the time of signing the contract with the insurer.
Journal of Mathematics and Modeling in Finance (JMMF)
Fatemeh Atatalab; Amir Teimour Payandeh Najafabadi
Abstract
An important question in non life insurance research is the estimation of number of future payments and corresponding amount of them. A loss reserve is the money set aside by insurance companies to pay policyholders claims on their policies. The policyholder behavior for reporting ...
Read More
An important question in non life insurance research is the estimation of number of future payments and corresponding amount of them. A loss reserve is the money set aside by insurance companies to pay policyholders claims on their policies. The policyholder behavior for reporting claims after its occurrence have significant effect on the costs of the insurance company. This article considers the problem of predicting the amount and number of claims that have been incurred but not reported, say IBNR. Using the delay probabilities in monthly level, calculated by the Zero Inflated Gamma Mixture distribution, it predicts IBNR's loss reserve. The model advantage in the IBNR reserve is insurers can predict the number of future claims for each future date. This enables them to change the claim reporting process. The practical applications of our findings are applied against a third party liability (TPL) insurance loss portfolio. Additional information about claim can be considered in the loss reserving model and making the prediction of amount more accurate.
Journal of Mathematics and Modeling in Finance (JMMF)
Nazanin Mohseni; Erfan Salavati
Abstract
Identifying the structures of dependence between financial assets is one of the interesting topics to researchers. However, there are challenges to this purpose. One of them is the modelling of heavy tail distributions. Distributions of financial assets generally have heavier tails than other distributions, ...
Read More
Identifying the structures of dependence between financial assets is one of the interesting topics to researchers. However, there are challenges to this purpose. One of them is the modelling of heavy tail distributions. Distributions of financial assets generally have heavier tails than other distributions, such as exponential distributions. Also, the dependence of financial assets in crashes is stronger than in booms and consequently the skewed parameter in the left tail is more.To address these challenges, there is a function called Copula. So, copula functions are suggested for modelling dependency structure between multivariate data without any assumptions on marginal distributions, which they solve the problems of dependency measures such as linear correlation coefficient. Also, tail dependency measures have analytical formulas with copula functions. In general, the copula function connects the joint distribution functions to the marginal distribution of every variables.With regard, we have introduced a factor copula model that is useful for models where variables are based on latent factor structures. Finally, we have estimated the parameters of factor copula by Simulated method of Moment, Newton-Raphson method and Robbins-Monroe algorithm and have compared the results of these methods to each other.
Original Article
Hossein Teimoori Faal; Meyssam Bagheri
Abstract
The economic downturn in recent years has had a significant negative impact on corporates performance. In the last two years, as in the last years of 2010s, many companies have been influenced by the economic conditions and some have gone bankrupt. This has led to an increase in companies' financial ...
Read More
The economic downturn in recent years has had a significant negative impact on corporates performance. In the last two years, as in the last years of 2010s, many companies have been influenced by the economic conditions and some have gone bankrupt. This has led to an increase in companies' financial risk. One of the significant branches of financial risk is the emph{company's credit risk}. Lenders and investors attach great importance to determining a company's credit risk when granting a credit facility. Credit risk means the possibility of default on repayment of facilities received by a company. There are various models for assessing credit risk using statistical models or machine learning. \In this paper, we will investigate the machine learning task of the binary classification of firms into bankrupt and healthy based on the emph{spectral graph theory}. We first construct an emph{adjacency graph} from a list of firms with their corresponding emph{feature vectors}. Next, we first embed this graph into a one-dimensional Euclidean space and then into a two-dimensional Euclidean space to obtain two lower-dimensional representationsof the original data points. Finally, we apply the emph{support vector machine} and the emph{multi-layer perceptron} neural networktechniques to proceed binary emph{node classification}. The results of the proposed method on the given dataset (selected firms of Tehran stock exchange market) show a comparative advantage over PCA method of emph{dimension reduction}. Finally, we conclude the paper with some discussions on further research directions.
Journal of Mathematics and Modeling in Finance (JMMF)
Saeid Tajdini; Amir Hamooni; Jamal Maghsoudi; Farzad Jafari; Majid Lotfi Ghahroud
Abstract
One of the longest-lasting controversies in the international macroeconomic literature is the purchasing power parity theory. It is the most controversial subject that has been tested with various econometric models in different timeframes and geographic data sets. It is a common assumption used regarding ...
Read More
One of the longest-lasting controversies in the international macroeconomic literature is the purchasing power parity theory. It is the most controversial subject that has been tested with various econometric models in different timeframes and geographic data sets. It is a common assumption used regarding the exchange rate and the validity of the Law of One Price. The present article aimed to present a new model to estimate the fair value of exchange rate which is one of the most critical factors in trade balance among countries, based on balanced trade-monetary theory by assessing the under or over-valuation of currencies. We can assume that a country with a strong economy should have strong money and vice versa. The results showed undervaluation of the dollar versus Yuan, Pound and Yen by 1.41, 1.149, and 1.126 times, respectively in 2018. Therefore, among the U.K., China, and Japan, Japan and the U.K. had a better trade balance with the U.S. than China
Original Article
Farshid Mehrdoust; Idin Noorani; Mahdi Khavari
Abstract
In this paper, we discuss the calibration of the geometric Brownian motion model equipped with Markov-switching factor. Since the motivation for this research comes from a recent stream of literature in
stock economics, we propose an efficient estimation method to sample a series of stock prices based ...
Read More
In this paper, we discuss the calibration of the geometric Brownian motion model equipped with Markov-switching factor. Since the motivation for this research comes from a recent stream of literature in
stock economics, we propose an efficient estimation method to sample a series of stock prices based on the expectation-maximization algorithm. We also implement an empirical application to evaluate the performance of the suggested model. Numerical results through the classification of the data set show that the proposed Markov-switching model fits the actual stock prices and reflects the main stylized facts of market dynamics. Since the motivation for this research comes from a recent stream of literature in
stock economics, we propose an efficient estimation method to sample a series of stock prices based on the expectation-maximization algorithm. Numerical results through the classification of the data set show that the proposed Markov-switching model fits the actual stock prices and reflects the main stylized facts of market dynamics. Since the motivation for this research comes from a recent stream of literature in
stock economics, we propose an efficient estimation method to sample a series of stock prices based on the expectation-maximization algorithm.
Original Article
Alireza Zamanpour; Asghar Abolhasani Hastiany
Abstract
This study aims to optimize the portfolio using the genetic operator and network centralization. The statistical population of the study is the top 50 companies of Tehran Stock Exchange, in the first quarter of 2021, and to calculate the size of centrality, we used the difference in the overall performance ...
Read More
This study aims to optimize the portfolio using the genetic operator and network centralization. The statistical population of the study is the top 50 companies of Tehran Stock Exchange, in the first quarter of 2021, and to calculate the size of centrality, we used the difference in the overall performance of each company compared to all the top companies, based on a standard hybridization indicator. Then based on the companies’ performance in the capital market, the geometric mean of risk and return of efficient companies are determined, and given the real limitations of the budget, the requirements and expectations of the investors compared to the market’s performance and the risk-free investment, the problem of decision-making for the composition of the investment in the form of a multi-purpose paradigm is formulated. By using the modified optimization algorithm and the genetic algorithm with dual operators, we optimized the investment’s composition. Finally, we use the compound linear regression with data analysis approach to evaluate the effect of individual and systemic operators on determining the investment strategy, and the results represented the positive effect of these two operators.
Original Article
Mehrdokht Khani; Abdolsadeh Neisy
Abstract
In this paper, we first present a nonlinear structural model for pricing mortgage-backed securities. These derivatives are considered to be the primary cause of the 2008 financial crisis that was raised in the United States. We focus our work on pass-through mortgages, which pay both the principal and ...
Read More
In this paper, we first present a nonlinear structural model for pricing mortgage-backed securities. These derivatives are considered to be the primary cause of the 2008 financial crisis that was raised in the United States. We focus our work on pass-through mortgages, which pay both the principal and interest to the investors. We begin our work by introducing the factors that affect the market of mortgage-backed securities. Then, by applying some assumptions and conditions to the parameters of the initial model, and without the loss of generality, we show that this model can be greatly simplified. We focus our attention on how the change in interest rates can affect the value of mortgage-backed securities. Various numerical methods can be used to solve the reduced model that is achieved. We adapt the mesh-less method of radial basis functions to solve the reduced model. The numerical results indicate that the method that we have used can capture the market trends in a specific interval.
Original Article
Hadi Bagherzadeh Valami
Abstract
In this paper, considering risks of a portfolio such as mean return, variance of returns, and moments of higher order as output variables including desirable and undesirable outputs, we introduce a non-radial and slack based score to measure efficiency of portfolios. Using the present measure, ranking ...
Read More
In this paper, considering risks of a portfolio such as mean return, variance of returns, and moments of higher order as output variables including desirable and undesirable outputs, we introduce a non-radial and slack based score to measure efficiency of portfolios. Using the present measure, ranking of portfolios is provided which is consistent with standard risk-return ratios in finance. We provide illustrations to show the effects of this contribution on the measures of technical efficiency and ranking of portfolios on a sample set of daily prices of banks and credit institutions listed on the first stock market of Tehran Securities Exchange (TSE). The advantage of this paper is to present a model based on stock market returns and risk, which is based on the DEA view of the production possibility set. Of course, in making it, the quadratic property of variance and the origin of coordinates have been used as a moderating point.
Original Article
Mehran Kaviani; Ali Mohammad Ghanbari; Moslem Peymany
Abstract
Business expansions being engaged in variety of industries in purpose of getting bigger market share, role of corporate governance within the financial decision. One of the important issues in corporate governance is block trading with purpose of control or invest in target firms. If the plan is to acquire ...
Read More
Business expansions being engaged in variety of industries in purpose of getting bigger market share, role of corporate governance within the financial decision. One of the important issues in corporate governance is block trading with purpose of control or invest in target firms. If the plan is to acquire majority of shares and decision making, block trade along with paying premium are of great importance.
The purpose of this study is to determine factors affecting on premium of block trading of firms listed in Tehran Stock Exchange or Iran Fara Bourse. Due to the significant impact of companies in refining and petrochemical sectors on whole economy and capital market, this kind of firms should have been considered specially. Multivariate regression and ordinary least squares (OLS) method was used to study the model related to the influential factors on the paid premium of the block trading. Finding of the research shows that financial structure, features of block trading, profitability and efficiency are among factors affecting on premium and also the type of company does not effect on premium.
Original Article
Kamran Pakizeh; Arman Malek; Mahya Karimzadeh khosroshahi; Hasan Hamidi Razi
Abstract
Cryptocurrencies, which are digitally encrypted and decentralized,
continue to attract attention of financial market players across
the world. Because of high volatility in cryptocurrency market, predicting
price of cryptocurrencies has become one of the most complicated
fields in financial markets. ...
Read More
Cryptocurrencies, which are digitally encrypted and decentralized,
continue to attract attention of financial market players across
the world. Because of high volatility in cryptocurrency market, predicting
price of cryptocurrencies has become one of the most complicated
fields in financial markets. In this paper, we use Long Short-Term Memory
(LSTM) and Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) models to predict price
of four well-known cryptocurrencies of Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH),
Litecoin (LTC), and Ripple (XRP). These models are subdivisions of Artificial
Intelligence, machine learning and data science. The main aim of
this paper is to compare the accuracy of above-mentioned models in forecasting
time series data, to find out which model can better predict price
in these four cryptocurrencies. 43 variables consisting of 28 technical
indicators and t+10 lags were calculated and appended to the Open,
High, Low, Close and Volume (OHLCV) data for selected cryptocurrencies.
Applying random forest as feature selection, 25 variables were
chosen, 24 of them selected as feature (independent variables) and one
as a dependent variable. Each attribute value was converted into a relative
standard score, followed by Min-max scaling; we compare models
and results of Dieblod Mariano test that is used to examine whether the
differences in predictive accuracy with these two models are significant,
reveal that LSTM reaches better accuracy than GRU for BTC and ETH,
but both models convey the same accuracy for LTC and XRP.
Research Article
Abdulrashid Jamnia; Mohammad Reza Sasouli; Emambakhsh Heidouzahi; Mohsen Dahmarde Ghaleno
Abstract
The capital or stock market along with the money market is one of the most important parts of financial sector of the nation’s economy, providing long-term financing required for efficient production and service activities. The total stock price index as reflector of stock market fluctuation is ...
Read More
The capital or stock market along with the money market is one of the most important parts of financial sector of the nation’s economy, providing long-term financing required for efficient production and service activities. The total stock price index as reflector of stock market fluctuation is important for finance practitioners and policy-makers. Therefore, in this research, a comparative investigation was presented on two superior deep-learning-based models, including long short-term memory (LSTM), and convolutional neural network long short-term memory (CNN)-LSTM, applied for analysing prediction of the total stock price index of Tehran stock exchange (TSE) market. The complete dataset utilized in the current analysis covered the period from September 23, 2011 to June 22, 2021 with a total of 3,739 trading days in the TSE market. Forecasting accuracy and performance of the two proposed models were appraised using root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) criteria. Based on the results, the CNN-LSTM showed the lowest values of the aforementioned metrics compared to the LSTM model, and it was found that the CNN-LSTM model could be effective in providing the best prediction performance of the total stock price index on the TSE market. Eventually, graphically and numerically, various prediction results obtained from the proposed models were analysed for more comprehensive analysis.
Original Article
Khadijeh Ghorbanidolatabadi; Hasan Ghalibaf Asl
Abstract
This study seeks to investigate the performance as well as the performance consistency of Iranian mutual funds during the current and subsequent periods. To this end, the Capital Asset Pricing Model along with CARHART’s four-factor model have been utilized to analyze the performance and performance ...
Read More
This study seeks to investigate the performance as well as the performance consistency of Iranian mutual funds during the current and subsequent periods. To this end, the Capital Asset Pricing Model along with CARHART’s four-factor model have been utilized to analyze the performance and performance consistency of investment funds. In order to examine persistency, all models are divided into 10 portfolios (10 distributions) based on the performance of the past one year. Then we considered succeeding 12 months later. Our results revealed that mutual funds in Iran have not outperformed the market, but there is performance consistency. This means mutual funds with the best performance (worst performance) will perform the same (better or worse) in the upcoming years. However, the extent of the best and worst performance of mutual funds is not significantly different. The historical performance of mutual funds can, to some extent, explain future performance. Therefore, investors' reliance on the backgrounds of investment funds as a recourse for investment is well justified. In other words, if investors spend on mutual funds with a past outperformance, there is a reasonable assurance to be repeated the past and will be among the winning funds in future periods. The opposite is also true
Original Article
Abdolsadeh Neisy; Nasrollah Mahmoudpour; Moslem Peymany; Meisam Amiri
Abstract
Pricing catastrophe swap as an instrument for insurance companies risk management, has received trivial attention in the previous studies, but in most of them, damage severities caused by the disaster has been considered to be fixed. In this study, through considering jumps for modeling the occurrence ...
Read More
Pricing catastrophe swap as an instrument for insurance companies risk management, has received trivial attention in the previous studies, but in most of them, damage severities caused by the disaster has been considered to be fixed. In this study, through considering jumps for modeling the occurrence of disasters as in Unger [32] and completing it through considering damages caused by natural disasters as stochastic, an integro-differential model was extracted to value catastrophe swap contracts. In determining the swap price changes, the Ito command was followed and to achieve the catastrophic swap model, the generalization of the Black and Scholes modeling method was used. [3]. With regard to the initial and boundary conditions, extracted model does not have an analytical solution; thus, its answer was approximated using the finite difference numerical method and the effect of considering the damage as stochastic on swap value was analyzed. In addition, the model and the extracted numerical solution were separately implemented on the data about the earthquake damage in the United States and Iran. The results showed that prices will experience a regular upward trend until damage growth, damage severities, and occurrence probability of a catastrophe are not so high that the buyer of the swap is forced to pay compensation to the swap’s seller. Of course, the prices will fall sharply as soon as they reach and cross the threshold.
Journal of Mathematics and Modeling in Finance (JMMF)
Chunhua Feng; Cadavious M Jones
Abstract
It is known that the original Kaldor-Kalecki model of business cycle was an example of a difference differential model. In the literature there are many results about this model and how it relates to an extended form representing an economic growth model and how the role of government and its simultaneous ...
Read More
It is known that the original Kaldor-Kalecki model of business cycle was an example of a difference differential model. In the literature there are many results about this model and how it relates to an extended form representing an economic growth model and how the role of government and its simultaneous monetary, fiscal policies can affect the economic stability. The authors proposed and studied business models using ordinary differential equations, nonlinear investment and saving functions. They showed that periodic solutions exist under the assumption of nonlinearity. Since then, similar models were also analyzed by several researchers and the existence of limit cycles was established due to the nonlinearity. In this paper, a three coupled Kaldor-Kalecki model with multiple delays is investigated. By means of the generalized Chafee’s criterion, some sufficient conditions to guarantee the existence of oscillatory solution for the model are obtained. Computer simulations are provided to demonstrate the proposed results.
Journal of Mathematics and Modeling in Finance (JMMF)
Maryam Esna-Ashari; Farzan Khamesian; Farbod Khanizadeh
Abstract
Given the significant increase in fraudulent claims and the resulting financial losses, it is important to adopt a scientific approach to detect and prevent such cases. In fact, not equipping companies with an intelligent system to detect suspicious cases has led to ...
Read More
Given the significant increase in fraudulent claims and the resulting financial losses, it is important to adopt a scientific approach to detect and prevent such cases. In fact, not equipping companies with an intelligent system to detect suspicious cases has led to the payment of such losses, which may in the short term lead to customer happiness but eventually will have negative financial consequences for both insurers and insured. Since data labeled fraud is really limited, this paper, provides insurance companies with an algorithm for identifying suspicious cases. This is obtained with the help of an unsupervised algorithm to detect anomalies in the data set. The use of this algorithm enables insurance companies to detect fraudulent patterns that are difficult to detect even for experienced experts. According to the outcomes, the frequency of financial losses, the time of and the type of incident are the most important factors to in detecting suspicious cases.
Journal of Mathematics and Modeling in Finance (JMMF)
Hossein Eslami Mofid Abadi; Marzieh Ebrahimi Shaghaghi; Morteza Taherifard
Abstract
This research has been investigated, economy and balance-sheet effects of the money growth rate targeting. According to financial statements of the banking network and national accounts, using dynamic stochastic general equilibrium New Keynesian and statistical data for the period 1991-2019.For estimating ...
Read More
This research has been investigated, economy and balance-sheet effects of the money growth rate targeting. According to financial statements of the banking network and national accounts, using dynamic stochastic general equilibrium New Keynesian and statistical data for the period 1991-2019.For estimating parameters, is used New Keynesian DSGE model and Bayesian method. This paper verify the validity of the model by analyzing the impulse response functions and Brooks and Goleman test. The results of the model indicate that the effect of negative the money growth rate targeting, reduce deposits, reduce loans interest rates, lead to reducing banks' resources, bank lending and then the health of the banks would compromise. In this way, investment and production will be reduced. Also, the effect of stock prices increasing, deposit, loan decrease and investment and production increase. Therefore, this research suggests the policy of negative the money growth rate targeting coincide with the policy of raising interest rates and stock price rising.
Original Article
Sedighe sharifian; Ali R. Soheili; Abdolsadeh Neisy
Abstract
The bond market is an important part of the financial markets . The coupon bonds are issued by companies or banks for increasing capital , and the interest is paid by banks or companies, periodically . In terms of maturities , bonds are divided ...
Read More
The bond market is an important part of the financial markets . The coupon bonds are issued by companies or banks for increasing capital , and the interest is paid by banks or companies, periodically . In terms of maturities , bonds are divided into three categories as follows : short term , medium term , and long term .
In this paper , we model the fractional bond pricing under fractional stochastic differential equation . We implement the multiquadric approximation for solving the fractional bond pricing equation . The equation is discretized in the time direction base on modified Riemann-- Liouville derivative and finite difference methods and is approximated by using the multiquadric approximation method in the space direction which achives the semi-- discrete solution . We investigate the unconditional stability and convergence of the proposed method. Numerical results demonstrate the efficiency and ability of the presented method .
Original Article
Tayebeh Nasiri; Ali Zakeri; Azim Aminataei
Abstract
We consider European style options with risk-neutral parameters and time-fractional Levy diffusion equation of the exponential option pricing model in this paper. In a real market, volatility is a measure of the quantity of inflation in asset prices and changes. This makes it essential to accurately ...
Read More
We consider European style options with risk-neutral parameters and time-fractional Levy diffusion equation of the exponential option pricing model in this paper. In a real market, volatility is a measure of the quantity of inflation in asset prices and changes. This makes it essential to accurately measure portfolio volatility, asset valuation, risk management, and monetary policy. We consider volatility as a function of time. Estimating volatility in the time-fractional Levy diffusion equation is an inverse problem. We use a numerical technique based on Chebyshev wavelets to estimate volatility and the price of European call and put options. To determine unknown values, the minimization of a least-squares function is used. Because the obtained corresponding system of linear equations is ill-posed, we use the Levenberg-Marquardt regularization technique. Finally, the proposed numerical algorithm has been used in a numerical example. The results demonstrate the accuracy and effectiveness of the methodology used.
Journal of Mathematics and Modeling in Finance (JMMF)
kamran ayati
Abstract
In this article supply demand based on prices volumes are extracted as measure of swaps between two or more indexes by neural network for recommend Market Makers to increase performance of Large Traded Volumes in real time Markets Quotes. Neural network are widely applicable tools for ...
Read More
In this article supply demand based on prices volumes are extracted as measure of swaps between two or more indexes by neural network for recommend Market Makers to increase performance of Large Traded Volumes in real time Markets Quotes. Neural network are widely applicable tools for develop operators performances in financial market applications. In classic economy when an equilibrium was Unbalanced must be a side of supply or demand was over than other one.in more indexes decisions for check balance condition between more than two indexes in real time market a neural network classification trigger is good suggestion. other methods such as indicators oscillators and numerical methods and statistical methods were been slow. The latency of candle data in clients solved by time stamp in log file and export of these triggers can draw by graphical Line or shape in data.an equilibrium point as middle of these balances for pairs of indexes are connected with triangle shape.
)
