Farzad Jafari; Amir Hamooni; Saeid Tajdini; Mohammad Qezelbash; Niloufar Ebrahimiyan
Abstract
In this study, based on the monetary behavior theory, which considers the mean and standard deviation of GDP per capita besides the inflation difference between two countries, we first present a model for determining the fair value of the Russian ruble in the long run from 1999 to 2021 based on macroeconomic ...
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In this study, based on the monetary behavior theory, which considers the mean and standard deviation of GDP per capita besides the inflation difference between two countries, we first present a model for determining the fair value of the Russian ruble in the long run from 1999 to 2021 based on macroeconomic indicators including inflation, and GDP per capita. And then we modeled the effect of widespread Russian economic sanctions on the value of the Russian ruble during the turbulent days of February 9 to April 9. Our research results show that there is not much difference between market value and fair value in the long run. Also, by observing the behavior of the ruble during the turbulent days of February 25, 2022, to April 26, 2022, and by entering the conditional risk factor and weighted average of the ruble, the USD to ruble equality between 76.23 and 91.6 was evaluated
Saeid Tajdini; Farzad Jafari; Majid Lotfi Ghahroud
Abstract
According to the literature on risk, bad news induces higher volatility than good news. Although parametric procedures used for conditional variance modeling are associated with model risk, this may affect the volatility and conditional value at risk estimation process either due to estimation or misspecification ...
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According to the literature on risk, bad news induces higher volatility than good news. Although parametric procedures used for conditional variance modeling are associated with model risk, this may affect the volatility and conditional value at risk estimation process either due to estimation or misspecification risks. For inferring non-linear financial time series, various parametric and non-parametric models are generally used. Since the leverage effect refers to the generally negative correlation between an asset return and its volatility, models such as GJRGARCH and EGARCH have been designed to model leverage effects. However, in some cases, like the Tehran Stock Exchange, the results are different in comparison with some famous stock exchanges such as the S&P500 index of the New York Stock Exchange and the DAX30 index of the Frankfurt Stock Exchange. The purpose of this study is to show this difference and introduce and model the "reversed leverage effect bias" in the indices and stocks in the Tehran Stock Exchange.
Nafiseh Shahmoradi; Hasan Ghalibaf Asl
Abstract
A large number of investors have been attracted to the Iran Mercantile Exchange as a result of launching Bahar Azadi Coin future contracts, also known as gold coin future contracts, since 2007. The nature of gold price as a physical-commodity and financial asset, as well as other contributing factors ...
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A large number of investors have been attracted to the Iran Mercantile Exchange as a result of launching Bahar Azadi Coin future contracts, also known as gold coin future contracts, since 2007. The nature of gold price as a physical-commodity and financial asset, as well as other contributing factors to the gold futures market, extremely complicates the analysis of the relationship between the underlying variables.One of the methods to forecast the price volatility is the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) model. However, the high percentage of errors in such prediction has forced researchers to apply a variety of techniques in the hope of more accurate projections. Similarly, in this study, a hybrid model of the GARCH and Artificial Neural Network model (ANN) was used to predict the volatility of gold coin spot and future prices in the Iran Mercantile Exchange.In this study, variables such as global gold price, spot or future gold coin price (depending on which one is analyzed), US Dollar/IR Rial, world price of OPEC crude oil, and Tehran Stock Exchange Index were considered as factors affecting the price of gold coin. The results of the study indicate that the ANN-GARCH model provides a better prediction model compared to the Autoregressive models. Moreover, the ANN-GARCH model was utilized to compare the predictive power of spot and future gold coin prices, and it revealed that gold coin future price fluctuations predicted spot price of gold coin more accurately.
